Xinhua news agency, Washington in February 2, the United States presidential election Trump accused Chinese and Mexico in the "stolen" American manufacturing jobs, after the election and named a hawk as trade adviser, Minister of Commerce and trade representative office, vowing to promote "the priority" policy, in order to reduce the US trade deficit, let manufacturing jobs back the United states.
Trump's criticism is tenable? What causes of American manufacturing jobs disappear? The US trade deficit is high in other countries wrong? Mainstream economists and gives Trump a different answer.
U.S. Department of labor data show that from 2005 to 2009, the U.S. manufacturing jobs decreased by 2 million 800 thousand; from 2010 to 2014, the U.S. manufacturing sector has steadily recovered, but only an increase of 762 thousand jobs. At present, the United States manufacturing jobs are still 1 million 400 thousand less than the 2007.
American economists have done a lot of research, including Professor David Ott, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the study is representative. They found that only 20% of the factors leading to the disappearance of U.S. manufacturing jobs, the impact of trade accounted for only about; technological progress, especially the application of automation technology is the main factor.
Brookings Institution senior researcher Du Dawei pointed out that the loss of American manufacturing jobs mainly because of technological progress. He said that the proportion of U.S. manufacturing accounted for the proportion of domestic output remained stable, but due to the manufacturing sector productivity growth higher than the service sector, the proportion of manufacturing employment declined. This phenomenon also exists in countries with large trade surpluses, such as germany.
The think-tank senior researcher Mark Muro also said that with the increase in productivity, American manufacturing industry relies more on automation and robot production, even if Trump can make the relocation of factory jobs back to the United States, there will be no significant increase. For example, he said, the United States to create $1 million in manufacturing output, in 1980 Requires 25 jobs, and now only need to work 6.5 jobs.
According to a report by the Boston consulting firm, the cost of spot welding is only $8 per hour in the automotive industry, while the cost of manual spot welding is $25 per hour, and the gap is expected to grow.
Trump and his economic advisers have repeatedly said that the huge trade deficit in the United States led to the disappearance of jobs, threatening to impose severe trade sanctions on China, Mexico and other countries to reduce trade deficit. Most economists, however, believe it is not wise to make trade policy based on trade deficits.
According to economic theory, a current account deficit means that the country's savings rate is low, the need to borrow from other countries in the world to support domestic investment. To solve the current account imbalances, either raise the savings rate, or reduce investment.
The Pedersen Institute for International Economics senior researcher Gary Hofbauer pointed out that the reason why the US current account deficit is not the existence of American foreign trade situation, the structural problems of the U.S. economy is the main cause of the imbalance of current account, the net savings of U.S. households, enterprises and government departments is negative.
Erin Ennis, senior vice president of the United States and China Trade Commission, told reporters that the crux of Sino US trade is not a large U.S. trade deficit with China, and the trade deficit does not reflect the overall picture of the U.S. economy. She said, if you want to solve the problem of China trade deficit, the most simple way is to change the trade deficit calculation, with added value to calculate, it can more fully reflect the global supply chain and the real situation of American economy.
Du Dawei said the Trump administration promised to cut taxes and promote infrastructure investment to promote economic growth, but these measures are likely to further reduce the U.S. domestic savings rate, and ultimately increase the trade deficit.
The International Monetary Fund chief economist Morris obsifeld pointed out that the unemployment rate has fallen to a low level, expansionary fiscal policy may push up inflation pressures in the US, the Fed interest rate leads to accelerate the rhythm, and then promote the appreciation of the dollar, which can further increase the US current account deficit.